Playing the Odds

Dlr: South ♠ A 5
Vul: N-S K J 9 8 3
K 6 3
♣ 6 4 3
♠ K Q J 10 9 4
A 4
A 8 7
♣ A 2
West North East South
1♠
2NT (1) Dbl 3♣ 3
Pass 3 Pass 3♠
Pass 4♠ Pass 4NT(2)
Pass 5(3) Pass 6♠
All Pass

(1) At least 5-5 in the minors
(2) Roman Key Card Blackwood
(3) One key card
West leads the ♣K to your ace. Can you take advantage of the information provided by the 2NT overcall to land this contract?

Solution

Declarer took the opening lead with the ace, cashed the ♠K and ♠A, thus marking West with at most a singleton in hearts.
Declarer then continued with the J from dummy, with the intention of running it if not covered.
This would lose only if West had three trumps or a singleton Q. As the cards lay, this was the only winning line. East covered the J with the queen and declarer won with the ace, then drew East’s remaining trump.
Next he played a heart to the king and ruffed out East’s 10. The K provided the entry to the established 8, on which declarer’s losing diamond was thrown.
If West had shown up with one trump, it would still be correct to lead the J at trick three as it would be at least two to one that East had the Q. It is only when West has a void in trumps that declarer should play the A and K after drawing trumps. Then, if West produces the 10, declarer should make certain of the contract by playing the 9 and discarding the ♣2 from hand. If the 9 loses to the queen, the 8 would still take care of declarer’s diamond loser.
The full deal.

Dlr: South ♠ A 5
Vul: N-S K J 9 8 3
K 6 3
♣ 6 4 3
♠ 6 2 ♠ 8 7 3
2 Q 10 7 6 5
Q J 10 4 2 9 5
♣ K Q J 10 5 ♣ 9 8 7
♠ K Q J 10 9 4
A 4
A 8 7
♣ A 2

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